Fan Dance (Brecon Beacons endurance walk) walk

SAS fitness exercise. Storey Arms over Pen y Fan to Torpantau, and back again, against the clock, with a full pack

Hiking Weather

10 Day Forecast for Storey Arms

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Showery rain clearing then chilly with clear spells.

This Evening and Tonight:

A band of showery rain will move eastwards this evening, eventually clearing around midnight with some drier and clearer conditions following. Isolated showers may linger on the coasts, while inland it turns chilly with a local frost possible. Minimum Temperature -1C.

Monday:

A chilly start on Monday with bright spells. Strengthening winds will bring outbreaks of rain from the west from late morning onwards, with coastal gales possible in the west later. Maximum Temperature 11C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Wet and windy on Tuesday, with coastal gales likely. Sunny spells and blustery showers thereafter with hail and thunder possible. Temperatures will be near normal.

Day 6 to 15

Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

Day 16 to 30

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

Met Office : WL : 2018-12-16T14:50:51

Issued: 1800 on 2018-12-16 for Brecon Beacons

Today

Dry with sunny spells in morning, becoming windy with outbreaks of rain arriving in afternoon. Feeling cold.

Summary Dry in the early hours with clear spells then Monday morning will be dry with bright or sunny spells. Clouding over in the afternoon with patchy rain arriving from the west. Rain perhaps heavy for a time early in the evening, but staying mostly light and intermittent.
Chance of Cloud free tops 80% in the morning with a few patches of low cloud. Becoming 30% during the afternoon with extensive cloud developing, bases 400-600m.
Ground conditions
Visibility Patchy early morning mist but otherwise good through the morning with excellent air clarity. Becoming poor at times from around mid-afternoon as rain and low cloud arrives.
Gales: Low Likelihood
Severe Chill Effect: Low Likelihood
Poor Visibility: Medium Likelihood
060708 091011 121314 151617 181920 212223
Weather Partly cloudy (night) Partly cloudy (night) Partly cloudy (night) Sunny intervals Sunny intervals Heavy Rain
Rain 30% 30% 10% 10% 10% 80%
Temp (tops) 3 3 4 4 5 5
Wind (tops) 18 18 16 17 22 23
Freezing Level 1000m 1000m 1100m 1100m 1300m 1600m
Day 1

Very windy with extremely challenging walking conditions on high ground. Patchy rain in early hours but rain will become heavy and persistent by dawn and last for most of the day to give drenching conditions. Heavy rain clears away to the east in the afternoon followed by clear intervals and scattered showers, wintry on summits.

Ice Above summits.
Visibility Poor for most of the day with low cloud at height and often a few km or less at low levels. Becoming clearer later as rain moves away east in the afternoon.
Wind Southerly average 50-60mph with gusts 80mph, easing through the afternoon to 20-30mph gusts 40mph.
Temp Plus 7 Celsius, falling to Plus 3 Celsius after dark. (at high level)
Day 2

Bright spells and occasional showers, wintry above 700m. Feeling cold with fresh or strong southwesterly winds and freezing level just above the summits.

Day 3

Sunny intervals and scattered showers, wintry above 700m. Some showers heavy with hail or thunder possible. Feeling cold with strong west or southwesterly winds. Freezing level just above summits.

Day 4

A dry, bright and frosty start but rain, preceded by summit sleet, is expected to spread east in the afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly winds.

Data: Met Office